{
  "engineVersion": "0.14.0",
  "ruleSetId": "fixed-limit-holdem-postflop-v1",
  "metric": "incremental call-versus-fold EV and actual contribution from the flop decision",
  "seeds": [
    2026100301,
    2026100302
  ],
  "trialsPerSeedPerLineup": 10000,
  "assumptions": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "name": "8h7h in a six-way raised pot on 9h5dKs",
    "seed": 2026100301,
    "simulationCount": 10000,
    "traceCount": 3,
    "heroSeat": 0,
    "buttonSeat": 4,
    "currentActorSeat": 0,
    "lastAggressorSeat": 5,
    "initialPotSmallBets": 13,
    "smallBetSize": 1,
    "bigBetSize": 2,
    "betCap": 4,
    "initialBetCount": 1,
    "rake": {
      "percentage": 0.1,
      "capSmallBets": 2.5,
      "incrementSmallBets": 0.5
    },
    "heroCards": [
      "8h",
      "7h"
    ],
    "flop": [
      "9h",
      "5d",
      "Ks"
    ],
    "currentStreetContributions": [
      0,
      0,
      0,
      0,
      0,
      1
    ],
    "comparedActions": [
      "fold",
      "call"
    ],
    "seats": [
      {
        "seat": 0,
        "name": "Hero",
        "profileId": "hero-basic"
      },
      {
        "seat": 1,
        "name": "Caller 1",
        "profileId": "loose-draw-heavy",
        "holeCardRange": "22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o"
      },
      {
        "seat": 2,
        "name": "Caller 2",
        "profileId": "loose-draw-heavy",
        "holeCardRange": "22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o"
      },
      {
        "seat": 3,
        "name": "Caller 3",
        "profileId": "loose-draw-heavy",
        "holeCardRange": "22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o"
      },
      {
        "seat": 4,
        "name": "Button",
        "profileId": "loose-draw-heavy",
        "holeCardRange": "22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o"
      },
      {
        "seat": 5,
        "name": "Flop bettor",
        "profileId": "loose-draw-heavy",
        "holeCardRange": "22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o"
      }
    ]
  },
  "heroProfile": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "id": "hero-basic",
    "version": "1.1.0",
    "displayName": "Basic low-limit hero",
    "strongMadeRaiseProbability": 0.65,
    "pairContinueProbability": 0.82,
    "pairRaiseProbability": 0.08,
    "strongDrawContinueProbability": 0.95,
    "strongDrawRaiseProbability": 0.2,
    "gutshotContinueProbability": 0.75,
    "overcardsContinueProbability": 0.35,
    "backdoorContinueProbability": 0.1,
    "completeMissContinueProbability": 0.03,
    "bluffRaiseProbability": 0.01,
    "potOddsAwareness": 0.7,
    "perceivedOutsMultiplier": 0.65,
    "openStrongMadeBetProbability": 0.75,
    "openPairBetProbability": 0.5,
    "openStrongDrawBetProbability": 0.4,
    "openGutshotBetProbability": 0.1,
    "openBluffBetProbability": 0.03
  },
  "opponentBaselineProfile": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "id": "loose-draw-heavy",
    "version": "1.1.0",
    "displayName": "Loose and draw-heavy",
    "strongMadeRaiseProbability": 0.72,
    "pairContinueProbability": 0.95,
    "pairRaiseProbability": 0.12,
    "strongDrawContinueProbability": 0.98,
    "strongDrawRaiseProbability": 0.25,
    "gutshotContinueProbability": 0.9,
    "overcardsContinueProbability": 0.75,
    "backdoorContinueProbability": 0.4,
    "completeMissContinueProbability": 0.08,
    "bluffRaiseProbability": 0.03,
    "potOddsAwareness": 0.25,
    "perceivedOutsMultiplier": 1.05,
    "openStrongMadeBetProbability": 0.82,
    "openPairBetProbability": 0.58,
    "openStrongDrawBetProbability": 0.45,
    "openGutshotBetProbability": 0.15,
    "openBluffBetProbability": 0.06
  },
  "comparison": "Opponent strongMadeRaiseProbability, pairRaiseProbability, strongDrawRaiseProbability and bluffRaiseProbability set to zero on all postflop streets; hero unchanged.",
  "pooledResults": {
    "baseline": {
      "trials": 20000,
      "flop_cost_sb": 1.463850000000003,
      "total_cost_sb": 7.681650000000012,
      "raise_count": 7042,
      "raise_rate": 0.3521,
      "raise_rate_wilson_low": 0.34550943384168936,
      "raise_rate_wilson_high": 0.3587473725109465,
      "call_ev_sb": 2.363816666666675,
      "call_ev_ci_low": 2.0628787267433912,
      "call_ev_ci_high": 2.664754606589959,
      "raw_turn_improvements": 4235,
      "improved_no_outright_win": 2378
    },
    "no-raises": {
      "trials": 20000,
      "flop_cost_sb": 1.0,
      "total_cost_sb": 4.386800000000032,
      "raise_count": 0,
      "raise_rate": 0.0,
      "raise_rate_wilson_low": 0.0,
      "raise_rate_wilson_high": 0.00019204311235897808,
      "call_ev_sb": 2.3481666666666565,
      "call_ev_ci_low": 2.1590896680881215,
      "call_ev_ci_high": 2.5372436652451915,
      "raw_turn_improvements": 4235,
      "improved_no_outright_win": 2328
    }
  },
  "uncertainty": "Normal pooled EV confidence intervals; Wilson raise-rate intervals. Sampling error only; no calibration or model-uncertainty claim.",
  "limitations": [
    "Illustrative profiles, not calibrated observed players.",
    "Bettor range is not conditioned on choosing the specified flop bet.",
    "Generic rake, not a specific cardroom.",
    "Cross-lineup paired differences not exported; no significance claim.",
    "Raw improvement failures include ties/folds; not clean-out estimates."
  ]
}